CPA vs RevShare & hybrid simulator

Headline commission is not expected payout. Compare a flat CPA with a RevShare or hybrid deal after approval, non-commissionable revenue, refunds, rebills, and delayed cash flow.

Deal terms

Compare expected value per raw conversion. Set the hybrid base to zero for a pure RevShare deal.

Flat CPA payout$Hybrid base payout (zero for pure RevShare)$Revenue share on the initial order%Revenue share on rebills%

Customer value

Expected rebills can be fractional: 0.8 means eight rebills for every ten approved customers.

Average initial order value$Expected rebills within the horizonAverage rebill amount (optional)$Approval rate%Commissionable share of revenue after tax, shipping, and discounts%Refund and chargeback rate%

Timing

Rebills are assumed to arrive evenly across the selected horizon. The discount rate is your monthly opportunity-cost and risk haircut.

Analysis horizonmonthsMonthly discount / risk rate%

Expected value result

Flat CPA expected value$37.87
Hybrid base contribution$0.00
Initial-order share contribution$18.41
Rebill share contribution$26.93
RevShare / hybrid expected value$45.34
RevShare leads by$7.47
Initial order value where RevShare matches CPA$75.18

Model assumptions and limits

Approval applies to the CPA, hybrid base, and revenue share. Commissionable-revenue and refund factors apply only to revenue share. CPA, hybrid base, and initial share are valued in month one; expected rebills are spread evenly across the horizon and discounted monthly. A blank rebill amount tracks the initial order value.

This is expected value, not a guarantee. It does not model tiered commissions, caps, negative carryover, changing churn by month, attribution loss, advertiser solvency, or contract-specific validation rules.

Sanity-check the inputs against real offers: browse RevShare offers or flat-CPA offers and inspect each network's payment terms before deciding.